Hillary Clinton has a76% chance of winning the presidency.
Last updated Saturday, October 1 at 11:18 AM ET
CHANCE OF WINNING
Donald J. Trump
The Upshot’s elections model suggests that Hillary Clinton is favored to win the presidency, based on the latest state and national polls. A victory by Mr. Trump remains quite possible: Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same as the probability that an N.F.L. kicker misses a 44-yard field goal.
From now until Election Day, we’ll update our estimates with each new poll, as well as collect the ratings of other news organizations. You can chart different paths to victory below. Here’s how our estimates have changed over time:
To understand what is driving the national trend, it’s worth taking a look at the states where the winning probabilities have changed most over the last two weeks:
in North Carolina
in Rhode Island
in New Hampshire
Get the latest updates to the Upshot's election forecast and presidential polling.
To forecast each party’s chance of winning the presidency, our model calculates win probabilities for each state. In addition to the latest state polls, our forecast incorporates a state’s past election results and national polling.
The table below shows our model’s estimate for Democrats and Republicans in all 50 states and Washington, D.C. We have put the states into five groups based on their voting history relative to the nation since 2004.
Our estimates in states that tend to vote …
The New York Times is one of many news organizations to publish election ratings or forecasts. Some, like FiveThirtyEight or thePrinceton Election Consortium, use statistical models, as The Times does; others, like the Cook Political Report, rely on reporting and knowledgeable experts’ opinions. PredictWise uses information from betting markets.
We compile and standardize these ratings every day into one scoreboard for comparison. First, every organization’s estimate for who will win the presidency:
Second, each organization’s state-by-state ratings. Viewed together, the differences between the models become much clearer.
1 Rothenberg & Gonzales ratings are converted from a nine-category scale to a seven-category scale to make comparisons easier.
Some combinations of electoral votes are much more common than others. The chart below shows the estimated likelihood of each outcome.
Most likely outcome 341 electoral votes 270 electoral votes needed
Electoral votes for Hillary Clinton →
The interactive diagram below illustrates Mr. Trump’s challenging path to the presidency. Here, we let you control the outcome of the nine states that have voted most like the nation since 2004, plus North Carolina, which has emerged in the past decade as a more competitive state. We then assume that Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton win the other states in which they are favored. Above all, this diagram illustrates how important Florida and Pennsylvania are to both candidates.
Select a winner in the states below to see either candidate's paths to victory.
Clinton has 693 ways to win
68% of paths
2% of paths
Trump has 315 ways to win
31% of paths